In the absence of the “official” BLS data, we turn to private jobs reports like the ADP report. This week, Revelio Labs released its monthly report on job creation, reporting “Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In October, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the government sector.”
As the summary notes, this decline was due in large part to a fall in government-sector jobs, which fell by 22,000 jobs in October. Other sectors also reported sizable drops, however, including retail trade (down 8,500) and manufacturing (down 5,200.)
This report can be contrasted with the October report out of ADP which showed a meagre increase in jobs of 42,000 in overall private sector employment. According to ADP’s chief economist, this was another month of lackluster employment:
Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.
ADP also notes that jobs in education and health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth. For the third straight month, employers shed jobs in professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality.
Just as a reminder, here is what the BLS’s establishment survey was telling us before reports were suspended by the federal partial shutdown: hiring was extremely weak in May, June, July, and August. Total employment went down in June.
This can be seen in how delinquencies on debt are surging, and the median age of homeownership has risen to 40 while first-time buyer share falls to a historic low. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has declared that the United States economy is in the midst of a “golden age”:
TRUMP: “I am pleased to report that today, the United States has the strongest economy, the strongest borders, the strongest military, the strongest friendships, and the strongest spirit of any nation anywhere.”
“This is the Golden Age of America.” pic.twitter.com/kY0BMpJQHb— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 5, 2025
